অর্থমন্ত্রী অন্ধ হলেই প্রলয় বন্ধ হবে না!

 এ হোসেইন 

সরকার দেশে উন্নয়নের মেলা বইয়ে দিচ্ছেন। ঝড়ো প্রচার চলেছে দুর্বার গতিতে। তবে সিপিডি যে সব তথ্য-উপাত্ত দিয়েছে তাতে দেখা যায়, ধনী অারও বিত্তবান, গরিব অারও গরিব হয়ে যাচ্ছে। ব্যাপার‌টা অর্থমন্ত্রী ‘রাবিশ’ বলে উড়িয়ে দিয়ে অন্ধ বনলেই  প্রলয় বন্ধ হবে না।

তবে সরকারের জন্য এটি মাথাব্যথা বলে গণ্য না-ও হতে পারে। 

বাংলাদেশের অামলা জগত প্রায়ই প্রবৃদ্ধি অার উন্নয়নের ব্যাপারটা গুলিয়ে ফেলেন। অার তাদের অনুগত মিডিয়াও একই তরিকা অনুসরণ করে। তবে অর্থনীতিবিদেরা বেশ কিছুকাল ধরেই এমনকি সরকারের নিজস্ব উপাত্ত ধরেই সরকারকে চ্যালেঞ্জ জানিয়ে অাসছেন। উদাহরণ স্বরূপ, ঢাকা বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ের শিক্ষক এম এ তসলিম খানাওয়ারি অায়-ব্যয়-এর জরিপের উপাত্ত উদ্ধৃত করে সম্পত্তির ব্যাপক সম্প্রসারণের বিষয়টি  চ্যা‌ল‌েঞ্জ করেনন। তিনি সরকারি পর্যায়ে তৈরি ( যেমন বিবিএস-এর  উপাত্ত) অন্যান্য ত‌থ্যকে চ্যালেঞ্জ জানিয়েছেন। তাঁর দাবি পারিবারিক অায় ২০১০-২০১৬ মেয়াদে বরং  ১১ শতাংশ কমেছে। অথচ বাংলাদেশ পরিসংখ্যান ব্যুরোর উপাত্ত বলছে প্রকৃত জাতীয় অায় ৪২ শতাংশের ও বেশি বেড়েছে। প্রফেসর তসলিম দাবি করছেন, প্রবৃদ্ধির উপকার সাধারণ মানুষের ঘরে যাচ্ছে না।

তবে সরকার তো তাদের নিজের দেওয়া উপাত্তকে অস্বীকার করতে পারেন না। উপেক্ষা করছেন। কেননা, এটা মেনে নেওয়া তাদের দরকার নেই। কেননা উন্নয়ন হচ্ছে সরকার ও ধনীদের মধ্যে যোগাযোগের একটা চক্র। দরিদ্র সেখানে কোনো ফ্যক্টর নয়। তাদের কাছে কেবল এগ্রিগেটসই  ধর্তব্য। বিত্ত যাদের অাছে তারাই গণ্য, গরিব একান্তই নগণ্য।

সিপিডি বলেছে  দূর্বত্তায়িত ব্যাঙ্কিং খাতে সঙ্কট, মূল্যস্ফীতি, অাকাশমূখি অামদানি, কম রপ্তানি, অপর্যাপ্ত রেমিট্যান্স, ব্যাঙ্কে দলীয় অাধিপত্য ও রাস্ট্রীয় তহবিল লোপাট ইত্যাদির কারণে অর্থনীতি  চাপে রযেছে।

তাই দেশের অর্থনৈতিক ব্যবস্থাও এখন দূর্বৃত্তায়িত সেই ১৯৭২ থেকেই। রাষ্ট্রকাঠামো ও ধনীরা এখন একে অন্যকে ঠেকা দিচ্ছে। ক্ষমতা অজেয় হয়ে উঠেছে একই ব্যবস্থায়। কতোই কায়েমি হচ্ছে এই ব্যবস্থা  ততোই গণতন্ত্র দূরে সরে যাচ্ছে। মূলমন্ত্র হয়ে উঠেছে ধনী-দলীয় অাঁতাত।

রাষ্ট্রের প্রকৃতি এখন অসমতার বুনিয়াদে দাঁড়িয়ে অাছে। অার এভাবে যা অাসছে সেটাই এই অশুভ অাঁতাঁতের জন্য বোনাস। সরকার তাই ফাঁক যাই কিছু ধরা পড়ুক তাতে  নাক গলাবে না। 

• সূত্র - বুধবার, জানুয়ারি ১৭, ইংরেজি দৈনিক নিউ এইজে প্রকাশিত সাংবাদিক ও গবেষক অাফসান চৌধুরির লেখা অনুসারে। 

Need to discipline city transport system

Shahiduzzaman Khan

The traffic congestion in Dhaka city continues to cost the country billions of dollars and thousands of man-hours. It eats up 3.2 million work-hours per day. Such a situation is hardly witnessed anywhere in the world.

In the last 10 years, average traffic speed in Dhaka has dropped from 21 kilometres per hour (kmph) to 7.0kmph, which is slightly above the average walking speed, according to a World Bank (WB) analysis. And by 2035, the speed might drop to 4.0kmph, slower than walking speed, it said.

What is worrying is that the city's urban development has not kept up with its rapid growth, resulting in a messy and uneven urbanisation process. Lack of adequate planning has led to poor liveability and vulnerability to disasters like floods and earthquakes.

Traffic congestion eats up 7% of GDP

Another study says traffic congestion in Dhaka costs the country $11.4 billion every year, which is seven per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). About one quarter of working hours are lost in congestion as about 1.5 million citizens use vehicles for travelling across the city every day, it said.

The congestion may be reduced by 40 per cent by just improving the management of traffic as 98 per cent of the people very often break the laws on the road. Besides, there are problems like illegal occupation of road, haphazard parking, and an uncontrolled rise in the number of private vehicles.

Apart from the economic impact, the congestion is also harmful for the travellers' health, their society and environment. Around three quarters of travellers face both physical and psychological health impacts, the study says.

What’s to be done

Mention may be made that the people of Dhaka and its suburbs 

generate 30 million trips every day and buses are used for 47 per cent of these trips. When five Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) and two Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) projects will be implemented by 2035, these might reduce 17 per cent demand but the rest of the demand has to be mitigated by buses.

The Bus Network Study-2016, which was carried out under a project financed by the WB, recommended a separate government company to monitor bus companies in the capital. Cities like New Delhi, Singapore and Seoul have such companies.

The recent move to form a government company appears to be a 'good initiative' for bringing discipline in this sector. At present, after taking route permits from regional transport committees, the buses go to Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) just only once a year for fitness certificates. There is no single authority to look into the sector.

• Courtesy: The Financial express/Jan 18, 2018

Poor governance can put feats at stake

Staff Correspondent

A major part of social and economic achievements of the country would be at stake without improvement in governance, observed representatives of development partners, civil society and government high-ups yesterday (Wednesday).

The view came on the first day of a high-level event, Bangladesh Development Forum (BDF), organised by the Ministry of Finance to discuss implementation progress of the 7th Five-Year Plan, the UN-set Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and challenges with development partners.

“Any deviation from this combination might jeopardise the unlocking of development potentials of Bangladesh. There is no alternative to improving governance in order for growth to be more sustainable and pro-poor,” said Shamsul Alam, member of the Planning Commission.

He made the comment while presenting the keynote on implementation of the 7th Five-Year Plan and SDGs at a session of the BDF at the Sonargaon Hotel. Finance Minister AMA Muhith chaired the session.

“Governance issue is particularly critical in the use of public resources, service delivery of institutions, transports, law enforcement, judiciary, land administration, tax and customs as they are still deemed corrupt service providers in Bangladesh,” he observed.

“Governance has been and remains one of Bangladesh's most critical challenges. Without addressing it, and more seriously, the government will be at the risk of losing some of the hard-earned economic and social advances it has achieved so far,” said Sir Fazle Hasan Abed, chairperson of Brac, the world's largest NGO.

He said governance should be at the very top of the government's priorities. He added partnership among the government, civil society and private sector can contribute to the next phase of the country's development.

“We must prioritise eradication of extreme poverty in Bangladesh. While one cannot deny the tremendous progress made, there are still 20 million people in our country who are living in direst forms of poverty and deprivation,” said the Brac chairperson.

Rensje Teerink, European Union ambassador to Bangladesh, put emphasis on diversification of export, regional integration, resource mobilisation and economic governance. She said, “We find it incredibly important to emphasise for Bangladesh to improve its overall governance, particularly in Public Financial Management [PFM], anti-corruption, transparency and tax mobilisation.”

The PFM is necessary for a country as it supports good public management by informing decision-makers to use scarce resources more efficiently, improve service delivery, reduce transaction cost and increase accountability of public institutions, she added.

Earlier at the inaugural session, World Bank Vice-President Annette Dixon said Bangladesh has attained impressive progress, but much remains to be done to give all of Bangladesh's citizens the opportunities they deserve. She said Bangladesh needs to address its infrastructure, energy, climate change and urbanisation bottlenecks.

“The country should continue to improve its institutions. The 7th Five-Year Plan importantly emphasises the need to strengthen governance, which includes building a strong civil service, judiciary, public banks, tax collection and Anti-Corruption Commission. We share Bangladesh's stated objective of zero tolerance for corruption.”

Finance Minister AMA Muhith said financing is the biggest challenge to implement SDGs and sought multilateral lenders and donors to enhance their financial and technological cooperation.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) Vice-President Wencai Zhang reaffirmed ADB's commitment to support Bangladesh in achieving the SDGs and assisting the country in fulfilling its growth aspirations.

Zhang said, “The ADB stands ready to support Bangladesh in tackling challenges to meeting the SDGs, improving infrastructure, and boosting social development. Improving education quality, enhancing access to health, and creating more employment opportunities, particularly for women, are some of the challenges to be met to achieve the SDG targets.”

At the keynote session, WB Country Director in Bangladesh Qimiao Fan said there are significant challenges for Bangladesh in going forward. He cited that the pace of poverty reduction and employment creation has slowed down. “We have also seen relatively inequality increasing in recent years.”

UN Resident Coordinator Mia Seppo emphasised addressing inequality and ensuring equality of opportunities, particularly in health and education for all.

• Courtesy: The Daily Star/Jan 18, 2018

FDI-friendly policies only in paper

Star Business report

Bangladesh has policies favourable for foreign investors only in paper, Nihad Kabir, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said yesterday Wednesday.

“Little of these policies are reflected in real life,” she said at a session on creating an enabling environment for foreign direct investment and private sector engagement at the Bangladesh Development Forum.

The finance ministry has organised the two-day event in the capital's Sonargaon Hotel, which is being attended mainly by development partners. She cited the foreign exchange rule of the country to further her point.

“The foreign exchange rule is liberal, but when we go for taking up the opportunity, we face various problems.” There is a policy uncertainty, particularly with regards to tax, which discourages investors.

“Investors remain concerned every year about what is going to be the tax policy. The tax issue should not change year to year,” she said, adding that foreign investors often ask questions about taxation and the policies on foreign exchange. Kabir also criticised the government's plan to build 100 economic zones.

“Instead of taking on 100 zones, the government should develop one or two properly. This will be helpful in attracting foreign investors,” she added.

Her comments came after discussants from the government's side focused on Bangladesh's steady economic growth, the entry of 20 lakh youths to the labour force every year and steps taken to attract foreign investment.

Poor logistics discourage potential investors, said Keiichiro Nakazawa, director general of the South Asia department of Japan International Cooperation Agency.

“Foreign investment is still below potential,” said M Masrur Reaz, senior economist at the International Finance Corporation's Dhaka office. Bangladesh will have to break into new products to participate in global value chain, he added.

If the civil administration is not efficient and investment-friendly, the expected level of investment will not come, said Mohammad Tareque, director of Brac Institute of Governance and Development.

The event was chaired by Gowher Rizvi, foreign affairs adviser to the prime minister; Fazle Kabir, governor of Bangladesh Bank, and Md Shahidul Haque, foreign secretary, also spoke.

• Courtesy: The Daily Star/Jan 18, 2018

Taka falling against US$ despite BB's support

Siddique Islam

Depreciating trend of the local currency against the US dollar is continuing despite the central bank's foreign currency support to the commercial banks.

The exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) depreciated by five paisa against the greenback in the last two days mainly due to higher demand for the US currency in the market.

The US dollar was quoted at Tk 82.85 each on Wednesday against Tk 82.83 of the previous working day. It was Tk 82.80 on Monday, according to the market operators.

On the other hand, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) has strengthened its foreign currency support to the banks for settling import payment obligations, particularly of food grains, fuel oils and capital machinery. As part of the move, BB sold US$24 million directly to seven commercial banks on Wednesday to meet the growing demand for the greenback in the market. On Tuesday, the central bank similarly sold $25 million to five banks on the same ground.

"We're selling the US currency to the banks at market rate for making their import payment bills," a BB senior official told the FE. He also said the central bank may continue providing such foreign currency support to the banks in line with the market requirement.

BB has resumed giving the support in the recent months through selling the US currency to the banks directly to keep the market stable. A total of $1.20 billion was sold to the commercial banks since July 01 of this fiscal year, 2017-18, as part of its ongoing support, according to BB's latest data.

The demand for the US dollar is gradually increasing, mainly due to higher import payments pressure, particularly of capital machinery, petroleum products, consumer items and food grains.

• Courtesy: The Financial Express/Jan 18, 2018

গাছ কাটার অনুমোদন নেই

পরিবেশ ও বন মন্ত্রণালয়ের অনুমতি ছাড়াই যশোর রোডের ২ হাজার ৩১৩টি গাছ কাটার উদ্যোগ নিয়েছে সড়ক ও জনপথ অধিদপ্তর। প্রচলিত আইনে এমন প্রকল্প নেওয়ার আগে অবস্থানগত ছাড়পত্র, পরিবেশগত প্রভাব সমীক্ষা (ইআইএ) এবং গাছ কাটার জন্য আলাদা অনুমোদন লাগে। এর কোনোটিই করেনি সড়ক সম্প্রসারণের দায়িত্বপ্রাপ্ত সংস্থাটি। এই পরিস্থিতিতে পরিবেশ ও বন মন্ত্রণালয় গাছগুলো না কেটে সড়ক সম্প্রসারণের জন্য সড়ক পরিবহন ও মহাসড়ক বিভাগের কাছে অনুরোধ করেছে।

এ ব্যাপারে ব্র্যাক বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ের ইমেরিটাস অধ্যাপক আইনুন নিশাত প্রথম আলোকে বলেন, যশোর রোডের গাছগুলো যেভাবে কেটে ফেলার উদ্যোগ নেওয়া হয়েছে, তা দেশের পরিবেশ ও বনসংক্রান্ত একাধিক আইনের লঙ্ঘন। সরকারি সংস্থাগুলো এভাবে আইন ভাঙলে দেশের পরিবেশ কীভাবে রক্ষা পাবে? এই প্রশ্ন তোলেন তিনি।

শুরু থেকেই ওই বৃক্ষগুলো রক্ষায় পরিবেশবাদীদের আন্দোলনের বিষয়টি আলোচনায় আসে। গাছ না কাটার দাবিতে গতকাল বুধবারও যশোর প্রেসক্লাবের সামনে মানববন্ধন হয়েছে। এ বিষয়ে প্রায় প্রতিদিনই রাজধানীসহ দেশের বিভিন্ন এলাকায় কর্মসূচি পালিত হচ্ছে। সামাজিক যোগাযোগমাধ্যমেও আলোচনা চলছে।

 পরিবেশ ও বনমন্ত্রী আনিসুল ইসলাম মাহমুদ প্রথম আলোকে বলেন, ‘যশোর রোডের ওই গাছগুলো না কেটে কীভাবে ওই সড়কটি নির্মাণ করা যায়, তা খতিয়ে দেখার জন্য আমরা সড়ক পরিবহন ও মহাসড়ক বিভাগের সচিবকে অনুরোধ জানিয়েছি।’

ওই গাছগুলো কাটার উদ্যোগ সঠিক পদ্ধতি অনুসরণ করা হয়নি বলে জানিয়েছেন মন্ত্রণালয়ের সচিব আবদুল্লাহ আল মোহসীন চৌধুরী। তিনি বলেন, এ ব্যাপারে তাঁরা আরও খতিয়ে দেখে খুব দ্রুত তাঁদের অবস্থান জানাবেন।

বনজ সম্পদ পরিবহন বিধিমালায় সরকারি বা ব্যক্তিগত মালিকানাধীন যেকোনো জমিতে কোনো গাছ থাকলেই সে তা নিজের ইচ্ছেমতো কাটতে পারে না। এ জন্য স্থানীয় বন বিভাগের কাছ থেকে ওই বৃক্ষ কাটা ও পরিবহনের অনুমতি নিতে হয়।

জানতে চাইলে সড়ক ও জনপথ অধিদপ্তরের যশোর বিভাগের নির্বাহী প্রকৌশলী জাহাঙ্গীর আলম বলেন, পরিবেশ ও বন মন্ত্রণালয়ের কাছ থেকে অনুমোদন নেওয়ার বিষয়টি জানা নেই। দরকার হলে নেওয়া হবে।

দেশের শুধু ওই এলাকাতেই একই সঙ্গে কয়েক শ শতবর্ষী বৃক্ষ আছে। জীববৈচিত্র্য বিশেষজ্ঞ পাভেল পার্থ বলেন, ‘মুজিবনগরের আম্রকাননের আমগাছ ও রমনার বটমূল যেমন আমরা কোনো যুক্তিতেই কাটতে পারি না, যশোর রোডের ওই বৃক্ষগুলো তেমনই কাটা যাবে না।’

• Courtesy: Protham Alo/Jan 18, 2018

Govt. must rewrite Bank Companies Act

THE cabinet’s approval of a draft bill in May 2017 seeking to amend the Bank Companies Act 1991 to allow four of a family to be on the boards of private commercial banks for nine yeas in a row suggested that the government was willing to strengthen family control on the banks. The passage of the bill into a law now suggests that the government was hell bent, going against warnings of experts, on consolidating family control on banks, to the jeopardy of depositor’s interest.

This is likely to deal a blow to good governance in the banking sector, which has so far faced loan scams and irregularities over the past few years. All such shady loans and mismanagement in the banking sector took place when the law allowed only two of a family to be on the bank boards and that too for six years in a row. What more harm the passage of the law may now do is that, as experts fear, the directors on the bank boards who are about to serve out their tenure of six years would now be on the board for nine more years, taking the total to about 14 years in a row.

While the law would be serving the interest of individuals and families and not the interest of people and depositors, and create the scope for turning banking activities into a family-oriented monopolistic business, it would definitely shrink the space for professionals to be bank directors. The finance minister is reported to have replied in the negative when he was asked if the law would strengthen family domination in the banks. But the minister in November 2017 termed the move of the Chittagong-based S Alam Group, to tighten its grip over banking in the private sector, ‘nasty steps’.

The minister that time sought a report from financial institutions division on the group’s engagement in private-sector banking when the group has already had, directly or indirectly through people having link to the group, its control over at least five banks. This happened when the law had restrictions and now without any such restrictions being in place, this could very well happen further and on a wide scale. The minister that time could not lift a finger to stop the ‘nasty’ moves, he may not be able to do it in future.

All this lends credence to the speculation that the law, in effect, would consolidate the authority of the families over the banks that they set up during the tenure of the Awami League-led government out of partisan interest. If the government cannot stop this, which will be highly harmful to depositors, it will lead to further debility of the banking-sector health. The government, under the circumstances, must scrap the law as it is, rewrite it by heeding expert opinions and drop the controversial provisions that entail the risk of a monopolistic business run by families in banking in the private sector. 

• Courtesy: New Age/Jan 18, 2018

Punish BCL men or face tough demo

Staff Correspondent

Agitating students of Dhaka University yesterday (Wednesday) gave the authorities a 48-hour ultimatum to punish the Chhatra League leaders who foiled their Monday's demonstrations or they will wage a tougher movement.

Around 200 students were staging a sit-in in front of the DU VC office that day demanding withdrawal of DU affiliation with some colleges. The BCL men appeared and foiled their programme by harassing female students and roughing up one of the demonstration coordinators.

About 100 students of different departments started demonstrating inside the VC office around 4:30pm on Wednesday. They placed a three-point demand, including suspension of the BCL leaders.

Their other demands include forming a probe body with the inclusion of two student representatives within 24 hours and submitting a report within 48 working hours, and resignation of the proctor if he failed to publish the probe report within that time.

The students went to the VC after confining DU Proctor Prof AKM Golam Rabbani to his office at the Arts Faculty for more than four hours.

They initially held a human chain at the Aparajeyo Bangla with the same demand at 11:30am, followed by a procession which paraded different streets on campus and ended at the entrance to the Arts Faculty.

When members of the proctorial team locked the gate and obstructed the demonstrators from entering the Arts Faculty, which leads to the proctor's office, the protestors broke the collapsible gate and began to demonstrate in front of the proctor's office.

They were chanting slogans demanding suspension of the BCL leaders who foiled their sit-in, and also asked for the reason for handing Sadik, one of the coordinators of Monday's movement, over to police.

The proctor assured them of forming a probe body immediately but the students rejected his assurance as he could not give a specific time frame. He was also unable say why Sadik was in custody.

After the proctor expressed his failure to solve the issue, the demonstrators moved to the VC's office.

After over an hour-long demonstration there, the VC assured them of taking immediate steps to form an investigation committee and fulfilling their demands by a given time frame. He also asked the students to submit a formal complaint attaching the photos and footage of Monday's incident. The footage showed how the BCL leaders harassed female students and took Sadik inside the VC's office and assaulted him there.

Moshiur Rahman Sadik, a DU student, who was picked up by the BCL leaders during Monday's demonstration and later handed over to the police by the university proctorial team on Monday, was released yesterday (Wednesday)  around 2:00am, his brother said.

• Courtesy: The Daily Star/Jan 18, 2018

GRADUATION FROM LDC CATEGORY - Exports await a blow

Rejaul Karim Byron and Sohel Parvez

Bangladesh is likely to lose about $2.7 billion in export earnings every year once it graduates from the Least Developed Country bracket, where it has been for 43 years.

Upon graduation from the LDC status, exports will be subjected to 6.7 percent additional tariff as duty-free and quota-free benefits from different countries and trading partners will be withdrawn.

The disclosure came in a paper prepared by the Economic Relations Division on the challenges and opportunities related to transitioning from LDC.

The study comes as a United Nations panel, the Committee for Development Policy, is expected to put Bangladesh in its graduation list this year as the country meets all three criteria: Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, Human Assets Index (HAI) and Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI).

The CDP will review Bangladesh's progress in 2021, and after a three-year transition period official graduation from the LDC category will take place.

At present, Bangladesh is a major user of duty-free and quota-free market access, with shipments under this facility accounting for 72 percent of the total exports in fiscal 2015-16, the ERD report said.

Bangladesh enjoys preferential market access to more than 40 countries in varying degrees, said the Centre for Policy Dialogue in a similar study in March last year. The private think-tank came to the same conclusions as the ERD.

“Regional trade agreements and bilateral initiatives cover about 90 percent of the total exports, and thus preferential market access is of special significance,” the ERD report said.

Of note is the preferential treatment by the EU, where 54 percent of Bangladesh's shipments are headed. After graduation, Bangladesh's exports will face 8.7 percent tariffs, according to the CPD.

“Undoubtedly upon LDC graduation, products made in Bangladesh will become more expensive to buyers and consumers in key export markets,” said the ERD report that will be presented at the two-day Bangladesh Development Forum that begins in Dhaka today.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimates Bangladesh's exports may decline 5.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

The preference erosion in major exporting countries will thus have implications for export competitiveness and export earnings, and consequently, GDP, employment and poverty, the CPD said.

“On the one hand, we will lose some opportunities. But on the other hand, new avenues of opportunity will be opened,” said ERD Secretary Kazi Shofiqul Azam at a press conference on Monday ahead of the BDF.

The ERD report recommended the commerce ministry take initiatives to make policy arrangements for exporters and manufacturers to support them during and after graduation from the LDC category.

Alongside increasing domestic resource mobilisation, the report advised the government to improve road, power, and port facilities to offset the effect of lost preferences in export markets.

Heightened efforts are necessary to diversify exports in order to reduce vulnerability of Bangladesh economy, it said.

It is not just in export markets, as the country will also be hit when it comes to foreign aid.

Concessionary financing from the International Development Association, the part of the World Bank that helps the world's poorest countries, and multilateral assistance with special benefits will also not be available upon attaining the middle-income status.

The benefit of technical cooperation and other forms of assistance such as fund support for scholarship, fellowship, participation for special training as well as for research will be pulled out.

Many of the fast-track projects under the Prime Ministers' Office such as the Matarbari Power Hub, Dhaka Metro Rail and Karnaphuli River Tunnel will require external borrowing and might not be financed from traditional concessional borrowing.

As per the WB's criteria, if the country's per capita income remains above $1,400 for three consecutive years, the rate of interest would become about 2 percent in contrast to 0.75 percent at present.

While Bangladesh has a solid track record of prudently managing its public debt and debt service payments, there is a risk that the foreign debt burden may increase due to the phasing out of the concessional facilities, the ERD report said.

Subsequently, the current strategy of prudent utilisation of concessional borrowing should be emphasised. But Finance Minister AMA Muhith at Monday's press conference dismissed such concerns.

Bangladesh's foreign aid dependence has declined substantially: it accounts for 1.3 percent of the country's gross domestic product, he said.

“So, there will be no problem in implementing programmes for attaining Sustainable Development Goals,” Muhith said, adding that there are $37 billion of foreign loans in the pipeline. The ERD report said under-nourishment could also remain a concern after graduation.

So, activities related to social developments, including health and education, should remain the core area of the development policy along with increased coverage of the social safety net programmes to address extreme poverty.

Risks like high poverty and inequality, low human capital and weak economic governances have to be tackled effectively and be minimised to a reasonable level.

Emerging risks like climate change, violent extremism and managing shock and vulnerabilities like Rohingya crisis are to be managed with extreme care and attention.

• Courtesy: The Daily Star/Jan 17, 2018 
• Cartoon Mehedi/New Age

Saying ‘rubbish’ won’t make economic disparity go away

 

Afsan Chowdhury

 

Afsan Chowdhury

JUST as the government has embarked on a propaganda blitz of ‘unnayan mela’ all over the country, The CPD has come forward with data which show that the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer in Bangladesh. The government should provide counter-evidence and arguments that the claims are not accurate. But the finance minister has called the CPD findings ‘rubbish’ and accused the outfit of ‘trying to pull Bangladesh down’ rather than contest the data. Till that happens, the CPD claim stands.

However, politically for the government, such information is not considered worrying as no evidence exists if such information influences politics in Bangladesh. Electoral voting is power and only power matters and the government shows little anxiety about 2018. So, any increasing gap between the rich and the power will not make the ruling party lose much sleep anyway.

Stats and evidence 

Bangladeshi official world often appear confused about the difference between growth and development and its loyal media do the same. But economists have been challenging this claim for some time using the government’s own data. For example, Professor MA Taslim of Dhaka University had asked where the benefits of high growth and high equity are going. Writing in an article titled ‘Where did the benefits of economic growth disappear?’ (bdnews24.com, December 18, 2017) Professor Taslim not only doubted claims of wide-scale prosperity but found BBS data unreliable as its finding contested other data which the officialdom generates.

Citing the Household Income and Expenditure Survey data, Professor Taslim states that ‘the household real income has actually declined by 11 per cent between 2010 and 2016. Real consumption also declined by about the same proportion during these years.’

But going by the Bureau of Statistics data, ‘real national income has risen by more than 42 per cent between 2009–10 and 2015–16 while the real per capita income has risen by 31 per cent. In other words, at the national level, each individual member of the total population, on average, has contributed to 31 per cent increase in real income during these 6 years. This increase in income was accompanied by a similar increase in real consumption per capita.’

 

But the Household Survey data show that in 2016, each person at the household level actually earned less than 2 per cent of what he did in 2010. ‘Real spending for consumption of each decreased by about 1 per cent.’

The disconcerting part is that the differences between the HIES and the national accounts data are rather too large to be ignored as statistical errors or due to different methods of calculation. Professor Taslim argues that the benefits of growth did not reach ordinary people.

What CPD said

THE CPD’s main point is that the economy has come under pressure because of the banking sector crisis, inflation, soaring imports amid inadequate export earnings and insufficient remittance inflows. The CPD added that the banking sector is suffering from cronyism and other irregularities. Embezzlement of public funds is taking place with influential people involved in it.

According to the CPD, theft of public money and criminalised banking sector are critical indicators of the nature of the economy. Both income and wealth inequality rose despite an average 6.5 per cent annual economic growth between 2010 and 2016. It says that the quality of growth should be analysed.

CPD research fellow Towfiqul Islam Khan said that the rate of job growth and poverty reduction in 2010–2016 was slower than in 2005–2010. Also, the pace of poverty reduction has not been equal throughout the country.

The income of the bottom 5 per cent of the population dropped 60 per cent in 2016 compared with 2010. By contrast, the income of the top 5 per cent rose 57 per cent during the same period, he said.

The govt is not threatened 

THE government cannot be in denial about its own data; so, what it is doing is ignoring it because it does not need to accept them. The economic system in place since 1972 has favoured the rich and the nature of wealth making is based on connections and political identities. This is translated into a political structure which ensures political power that, in turn, sustain this method of wealth making. Hence, one guarantees the other. 

As this process has matured, the notion of ‘democracy’ has also split into electoral democracy which is essentially controlled by the wealthy and the democracy of the marginalised which has its roots in traditional organic institutions like ‘salish’, ‘mohalla’, etc that have been at bay from the penetration of centrally-controlled local government outfits. 

The nature of the state is based on inequity and whatever comes in the way of the poor is a bonus for them. Thus, income and prosperity disparity issues and data showing its evidence will not be challenged by the government as it does not feel threatened by them now or in 2018. 

Unhappiness of the marginalised does not translate into electoral difficulties which is largely an internal matter of two contesting groups of the well-off. Hence, data or action based on them will not really matter.

 

• Afsan Chowdhury is a journalist and researcher.
• Courtesy: New Age/ Jan 17, 2018