By Nicole Ireland / CBC News
"The Islamic State is expanding its reach around the
globe, and its latest focus is on Bangladesh," the report warned.
Those words were published by Stratfor, a global
intelligence company based in Austin, Texas, on April 26 — more than two months
before militants killed 20 hostages in a restaurant in Dhaka, the Bangladesh
capital, and ISIS claimed responsibility.
On Thursday, extremists struck again, hurling homemade bombs
at police guarding an Eid-al-Fitr prayer service to mark the end of the Muslim
holy month of Ramadan in Kishoreganj district, about 90 kilometres north of
Dhaka. Four people died, including one of the attackers, and more than a dozen
others were injured.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but after
the restaurant attack, ISIS threatened more violence in Bangladesh.
"There's definitely a groundswell of jihadism
there," said Scott Stewart, Stratfor's vice-president of tactical analysis
and a former special agent with the U.S. State Department.
The Bangladeshi government has denied ISIS was responsible
for either of the recent attacks, blaming them on domestic militant groups. But
terrorism experts, including Stewart, disagree, saying that such groups within
Bangladesh are likely affiliated with ISIS or rival organization al-Qaeda.
ISIS has ruthlessly targeted Muslims, particularly Shia, it
deems to be apostates.
"I believe the fact that [Thursday's attack] targeted a
religious gathering is a sign that it was Islamic State-related," Stewart
said. "Al-Qaeda specifically prohibits such attacks in their
doctrine."
The battle for control between ISIS and al-Qaeda is one
factor that makes Bangladesh especially vulnerable to attacks, experts say.
"Bangladesh is very relevant [as a target]," said
Kamran Bokhari, a fellow at George Washington University's extremism program
and a senior lecturer at the University of Ottawa. "It allows ISIS to say,
'Look, we're in South Asia.'"
"South Asia used to be al-Qaeda's turf," he added.
"Al-Qaeda is now bitter that ISIS is encroaching on it."
Stewart said he's worried that both ISIS and al-Qaeda will
try to surpass each other in violent attacks in Bangladesh.
"I'm really concerned we're going to see an escalation
as al-Qaeda tries to respond in kind, to keep themselves relevant," he
said. "At the same time, I think that Islamic State supporters are going
to want to continue to kind of add on, you know, to their gains."
Up to this point, Stewart said, attacks in Bangladesh appear
to have been carried out largely by local groups who may be acting on behalf of
ISIS, but likely haven't had specialized training in bombs or other weaponry.
That means the attacks could have been "far more deadly" than they
were, he said.
"My largest concern is that we are going to see an
infusion of more seasoned terrorists who will return to Bangladesh from Syria
and Iraq," Stewart said. "That could ramp up the threat level
considerably."
Exploiting 'local grievances'
Internal strife in Bangladesh, including long-established
radical groups, make it fertile ground for ISIS, Stratfor said.
"For the Islamic State, followers of these groups
represent a vast pool of potential recruits," the firm said in its April
report, while acknowledging some of those local groups could also become ISIS
rivals.
Tension between the Bangladeshi government and opposition
critics — some of whom were arrested in 2015, according to Human Rights Watch —
feeds into the interests of ISIS, Bokhari said.
"They are always scouting out and looking for areas
where they can exploit local grievances and find allies and partners," he
said. "When there is so much, you know, anti-government sentiment, that
just works for ISIS."
Faiz Sobhan, research director in the foreign policy,
security and countering violent extremism section of the Bangladesh Enterprise
Institute, said he doesn't know definitively if ISIS has set its sights on the
country, but there are reasons it might.
"Bangladesh is a predominantly Muslim majority country,
with the third or fourth largest Muslim population in the world," Sobhan
said in an email to CBC News. "A group like ISIS may be keen to test the
waters and gauge what sort of reaction it obtains in such a country."
"Their global brand resonates with many extremist
groups internationally and local groups in Bangladesh may wish to jump on the
ISIS bandwagon to garner more attention," he said. "As ISIS begins to
suffer more battlefield losses in their heartland [Iraq and Syria], they are
increasingly focusing on setting up shop in new territories."
Nicole Ireland is an online and broadcast journalist for CBC
News. Based in Toronto, she has lived and worked in Thunder Bay, Ont.; Iqaluit,
Nunavut; and Beirut, Lebanon.
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