Shakhawat Hossain
Now after the conclusion of Khulna and Gazipiur city corporation elections, questions have surfaced in public mind about the necessity of spending huge amount of money from the public exchequer in holding of holding another captive and largely non-inclusive January 5 like elections in Bangladesh where the voters cannot rightfully exercise their franchise and also can not see the reflection of their aspirations in the polls result under the prevailing political culture.
With such a nagging but a realistic and timely question being raised in the mind of the general people of Bangladesh, the voters as approaching towards a national polls by the end of this year. The ruling party and the Election commission has made it6 formal that the e4lection sche4dule would be annmounced in October apparently putting the country’s major opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the bay once again.
For a country like Bangladesh, elections are a major indicator of democracy in true sense. Peaceful transition of power through hassle-free election is desirable for strengthening democracy in the country, but it is not always achieved.
Bangladesh has long been stuck in a political impasse. Although the country adopted a multiparty system in 1991, subsequent governments have been repressive and failed to meet the standards of democracy. Now, the upcoming 11th Parliamentary Election may be legal under the 15th Amendment, but its legitimacy remains subject to question. Will the Bangladeshi people - and the opposition alliance - accept the results of an election that fails to represent all groups?
There are speculations about possible scenarios, including those pertaining to the impartiality of the polls and also violence affecting the polls. Such speculation is not unusual as elections in the country are often turbulent.
With less than six months left for the parliamentary election in Bangladesh, the country is now drawing lots of attention in South Asia and outside, as both the two arch-rivals, ruling Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) and the major opposition BNP and is still a far away in reaching a national consensus or a national unity through a much awaited dialogue for resolving the crucial issue about the poll-time government though time is running so fast now.
And, the upcoming elections are getting lots of attention largely because the ‘Opposition’ Bangladesh Nationalists Party (BNP), one of the dominant political players, boycotted the 2014 parliamentary polls, protesting against the abolition of the ‘care-taker government system’, a special poll-time arrangement for overseeing the election, which was institutionalised in 1996. This system was abolished in 2011 with a constitutional amendment by the current government led by Sheik Hasina.
The government’s policymakers are yet to move to hold talks with the opposition BNP to resolve the political crisis over a polls-time government. Rather, they have been dismissive of the opposition demand for installing a non-partisan government, saying no unelected people will be allowed to run the country during the election. Both the leaders still remain rigid in their stance, raising the spectre of political violence.
Further complicated
To make the situation further complicated, BNP chief and former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia has been serving a five-year jail sentence, in a corruption case, since February this year. The BNP has termed the conviction ‘politically-motivated’ to keep Khaleda Zia out of the electoral race.
The BNP is also facing another problem. Khaleida’s heir and party vice-chairperson Tarique Rahman too has been convicted in the same case, and hence he too cannot fight the upcoming elections. Considering the circumstances, some ambiguity exists about the party’s actual participation in the election. The BNP, however, has not clarified its stand yet. However, some reports in the popular media suggest that the party has been preparing for the election.
Inclusive election
Currently, an inclusive participatory election is at the centre of the current political discourse in the country. But, the elections in Bangladesh have been problematic. The elections are not only been violent with clashes between political rivals but also the impartiality of the system and the process has also been an issue. The system of caretaker government was instituted to ensure free and fair polls.
It is noted here that the absence of opposition parties in the January 5 election has raised serious concerns about the credibility of the elections. On December 29, 2013 the opposition BNP called for a “March for Democracy”, but its leader Khaleda Zia was put under house arrest by the government. The situation has become so dire that the Asian Human Rights Commission, in an open letter to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, urged him to act immediately to save supporters of Bangladesh’s political opposition from extra-judicial execution by state agents in the lead up to the general election.
The present political dispensation is regularly being criticised by the Opposition BNP for its alleged failure to create an atmosphere for inclusive politics, where all the political parties could have a level-playing field for conducting their activities and contesting elections. The Opposition has been accusing the government of harassing their cadres, as part of ‘political vendetta’.
“Increasing radicalism in the country is against the idea of a democratic Bangladesh. It is being feared that any turbulence on democracy will give the radicals a chance. For the people of Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority country with a liberal society, elections are a re-assurance to its liberal order,” observed New Delhi based Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
So, a legitimate election must be representative and that cannot happen without the participation of the major opposition BNP. If all parties and groups do not achieve consensus on electoral rules, Bangladesh may witness a repeat of 1996, 2014 or worse, descend into a state of violence and lawlessness.
“Current ‘political crisis’ deeper than before”
The current ‘political crisis’ Bangladesh is now going through is deeper than that of past 46 years, said an international political analyst on July 6.
“To understand the reason behind the crisis and identify the future pathway of the country’s politics, four things are needed to be looked at — the current face of governance, reaction from the new class of social stratification, influence of Islamists on society and politics; and the role of India,” said Distinguished Professor Ali Riaz.
Prof Riaz, who teaches at the Department of Politics and Government in Illinois State University, USA called the current government a ‘regime’ because he said ‘regime lasts longer than any government’ using formal and informal institutions.
Speaking at the 23rd monthly public lecture titled ‘Future Trends of Politics in Bangladesh’, organised by Reading Club Trust and Gyantapas Abdur Razzaq Foundation, at Sirajul Islam Lecture Hall in Dhaka University, he said a hybrid ‘regime’ is going on in the country where ensuring everyone’s participation and everyone’s right to vote is a ‘matter of big concern’.
“All hybrid regimes are not the same. The most important factor is some of the aspects of such regime look like democratic while some others behave like autocratic,” he said.
Claiming election as the only legal base to be there in power, Ali Riaz said: “After the 2008 election and the 15th amendment to the constitution, a new type of political system has come into the scene where election has been turned into a tool of authority, rather being a tool of democracy.”
After the cancellation of the caretaker government system, now it has become impossible to defeat the ruling party, he said adding that once there was a vibrant civil society in the country which is now missing.
“The benefits of the existing economic growth for the past several decades are being enjoyed by only a few groups of the country. The real income of general people is reducing while resources are getting concentrated by a small group of people,” Ali Riaz observed.
Condemning the current situation in the country’s banking sector and growing unemployment rate, he said, “As per the BBS information, 45 percent of the capable population is unemployed.”
Prof Riaz also described the state-level relationship between Bangladesh and India as ‘sweet and sour’ where Bangladesh is significant for India for geo-political reason. “India is almost playing the role of determinant in Bangladesh politics.”
Is fair polls possible under present EC?
It has been proved once again that a free, fair and acceptable election is not possible under the present Election Commission. Everyone in home and abroad is saying that the recent city corporation elections were a mockery with unprecedented rigging and massive irregularities.
People’s confidence on the entire electoral system has been smashed due to Election Commission’s inactiveness to address multiple irregularities and vote rigging by the ruling party men in the recently held city corporation polls.
In the Khulna and Gazipur civic polls, the election commission’s weakness was exposed largely. EC swallowed strong criticism for its failures to have control over law enforcement, mass arrest of opposition activists, conducting raids from house to house of opposition activists, ballot stuffing after capture of polling stations during Khulna and Gazipur polls.
The country’s main opposition political party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had raised questions about the neutrality of the election commissioners, particularly, chief election commissioner KM Nurul Huda, when the commission was reconstituted in February of 2017. After the Khulna polls, BNP demanded resignation of the election commissioners.
According to election experts and observers, the election commission (EC) has failed to exert its due constitutional power in ensuring a level-playing field and checking various irregularities in the recently held Gazipur City Corporation (GCC) polls.
They said the EC also failed to ensure its control over the police and the local administration to create an election atmosphere after the announcement of the schedule.
The election observers said the election atmosphere was nice in the morning, but it ‘collapsed’ in the afternoon due to the commission’s lack of strong role and law enforcers’ ‘negligence’.
“The election atmosphere was very good with the presence of huge voters in the morning, but it got destroyed with the passage of time. We’ve seen many irregularities in the afternoon. We’re preparing our statement on the polls analysing our data,” reports UNB quoting Md Abdul Alim, director of Election Working Group (EWG), which monitored the GCC polls.
He said the EC needs to establish its full control over the local administration and police in the election area after the announcement of the schedule. “But, they couldn’t do it for lack of cooperation by different stakeholders, mainly by the government.”
The director of EWG, a non-partisan network of 28 leading civil society organisations, said the commission could ask the police not to arrest or harass anyone after the announcement of the schedule. “But, they did it just a day before the polls.”
Under such a circumstance, the credibility, neutrality, honesty, integrity, sincerity, competency as well as authority of the incumbent Chie Election Commissioner (CEC) are now under a big question, as he has utterly failed to pass the first test while conducting the city corporation polls.
Consequently, another question is also being raised to a large extend as to how a failed CEC will be able to hold any other polls upcoming national polls in a free, fair and neutral manner? Let along the upcoming city corporation polls slated for December, this year.
EC fulfilling government wishes?
The election commission is, for all practical purposes, reportedly fulfilling the wishes of the government now run by Bangladesh Awami League (AL) and the more the national election is nearing the more that is becoming apparent. Election experts said various steps in recent times have called the credibility of this constitutionally independent body into question.
EC officials said during a recent meeting with the election commissioners, a delegation of ruling AL had put forth three demands – allowing MPs to carry out electioneering in city polls, no changes to electoral constituencies and further scrutiny before amending the Representation of People Order 1972.
Following the demand, the election commission amended the rules of electoral code of conduct for city corporation elections allowing the members of parliament to participate in poll campaigns.
Proposed amendments to the RPO have also been sent for further scrutiny while the commission completed the re-demarcation of the constituencies almost in line with the desires of the ruling party.
In response to AL’s objection to the returning officer for the Khulna city polls, the commission appointed a joint secretary as the coordinator for the polls and sent him to the city.
On the other hand, the commission paid no heed to opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) demand for withdrawing Khulna metropolitan police commissioner and Gazipur police superintendent.
The commission also took no steps to address several allegations raised by BNP’s Khulna mayoral candidate.
Various proposals came during commission’s stalks with stakeholders which included troop deployment in national elections, introduction of no-vote, holding general elections in a staggered manner, and voting arrangement for non-resident Bangladeshis.
But the commission took no steps to implement those proposals. It rather is waiting for government decision saying, “These are political affairs.” These steps of the election commission have given birth to a discussion that this constitutional commission is working only to fulfil the desire of the government.
Against such a backdrop, election experts fear that the commission would have to face a big crisis of confidence before the next general elections slated to be held in the yearend if it continues to behave like this. But, the incidents of ballot-stuffing, capture of polling stations and intimidation of voters by ruling party activists have called into EC’s role into question.
US links Bangladesh’s elections to Indo-Pacific stability
US Ambassador Marcia Bernicat has, however, linked free, fair and credible elections in Bangladesh with the stability of the Indo-Pacific region for which the new American administration has adopted a strategy.
“The US and Bangladesh are built on the same democratic principles and foundations. This is what makes both of our countries strong. And a strong Bangladesh is crucial for the stability of the Indo-Pacific region,” Bernicat said while meeting diplomatic correspondents in Dhaka on June 28.
Before saying that, she highlighted Bangladesh’s democratic process and elections in Khulna and Gazipur, and indicated that stability comes through holding free, fair and credible elections.
“While we commend the Khulna and Gazipur city corporation elections, the US remains concerned by reports of irregularities, including ballot box stuffing and intimidation of political players and polling agents both before and on the day of the vote,” she said.
