Shahid Islam in Toronto
Did any autocracy in history end with flying colours and caramelized kisses? Why should it be different in Bangladesh where the struggle for democracy has historically been synonymous with struggle for independence?Despotic, autocratic rulers since the creation of Pakistan tried to subdue the Bengali nation time and again, only to whet the appetite of independence following the Pakistani military ruler’s negation to hand over power to the victorious Awami League(AL) in 1971.
47 years on, Germany’s Bertelsmann Foundation published its “Transformation Index 2018 (BTI)” on March 22 in which 58 out of 129 developing nations have been rated as autocracies; including Bangladesh, Lebanon, Mozambique, Nicaragua and Uganda. “Due to the worsened quality of elections, the formerly fifth largest democracy is classified as an autocracy again,” the report said about Bangladesh, adding, “The Islamists have gained enormous strength in Bangladesh in the past few years.”
The rear view
Little wonder the Islamists and other extra-constitutional forces will hone their spirit and perseverance to fish in the muddied water when the nation is once again devoid of democracy and rule of law. For that is how the history of the humanity had evolved and energized itself since the beginning of the creation.
Remember what happened when the legislative elections were held in East Pakistan between 8 and 12 March 1954 – the very first since Pakistan became an independent country in 1947— and the opposition United Front led by the Awami League and the Krishak Sramik Party won a landslide victory with 223 of the 309 seat?
That victory proved illusory due to internal divisiveness of the Bengali leaders. As the AL was left out of the government formed on April 3 that year and, only the Krishak Sramik Party and its leader AK FazlulHuq was inducted to power, it triggered a crisis in the front and resulted in the inclusion in the government on May 15 of Abul Mansur Ahmed, Ataur Rahman Khan, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Abdus Salam Khan and Hashimuddin.
Then the irony of the fate, or a massive conspiracy, intervened. The same day, serious riot between Bangali and non-Bangali workers of the Adamjee Jute Mills at Narayanganj caused the death of nearly 1500 workers; for which communist activists were blamed, while the FazlulHuq-led regime faced the brunt of the entire tragedy. On May 30, the ministry was dismissed and direct governor’s rule imposed; dashing the democratic aspirations of the Bengali nation as painfully as it did in 1971.
Now, when the incumbent regime rejects the BTI findings, it does so by ignoring the methodology adopted by the German-based political scientists who measured quality of democracy, market economy and governance in 129 developing and transformation countries since 2006 and said about Bangladesh that: “These developments are worrying for citizens because corruption, social exclusion and barriers to fair economic competition continue to be more prevalent in autocracies.”
Support for BTI report
Robert Schwarz, a project manager for the BTI at the Bertelsmann Foundation, suggested that Bangladeshi politicians read the report before commenting on its findings. He said:”The authors of the Bangladesh Report highlighted that both the government and the opposition have contributed to the incremental deteriorations in some democracy indicators.”
Schwarz added that the report highlights positive developments in the economic realm in terms of economic output, macroeconomic stability, market-based competition and private enterprise. It also includes negative developments in the political realm such as free and fair elections, the separation of powers, and the independence of the judiciary.
The BTI’s findings also correspond with consensus from other experts who say democracy in Bangladesh is declining; and driving this is the lack of political plurality and the personal rivalry between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and opposition leader Khaleda Zia.
Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, says: “Bangladesh is moving quickly in the direction of becoming an autocracy.The ruling party has cracked down relentlessly and repeatedly, and often violently, on the political opposition. This is a country on a dangerous path to becoming a one-party state, unless it manages to change course.”
Timing of the report
The globally acclaimed report emerged at a time when the country’s main opposition leader, Khaleda Zia, remains incarcerated since February 8 on a corruption case filed a decade ago while a military-backed caretaker government was in power. A special court in Dhaka sentenced Zia to five years in jail for misappropriating funds meant for orphans, which she literally did not do, as the funds are staked in another account. Yet her bail has been denied under a slew of legal and ‘politically spurious’ pretexts.
Since Zia’s conviction and imprisonment, her captivity is being touted globally not only as politically motivated, but as “a ploy to keep her behind bars during the upcoming national elections scheduled for late 2018.”
“Given the history of enmity between Zia and the Awami League, and given the government’s relentless efforts to sideline the opposition, I’d certainly assume these legal moves are politically motivated,” said Kugelman.
Siegfried O. Wolf, director of research at the South Asia Democratic Forum, agrees. He maintains: “The perspectives of democracy in the Muslim-majority country currently look grim.” Wolf however adds: “”It is far too narrow to solely blame the current government for democracy being under pressure in Bangladesh. This rationale distracts from the fact that the situation is far more complex and numerous unfortunate trajectories can be traced back to earlier governments too.”
Predictions for future
Be that whatever, the predictions for coming days are grim and scary. The BTI report, as well as its analysts and authors of the post-mortem, predict that the ruling Awami League will continue to pursue legal charges against the opposition BNP, pushing Bangladesh toward one-party, authoritarian rule, and, “PM Sheikh Hasina will use religion selectively to expand her support.”
These international observers further maintain that “political strife has given rise to extremist attacks, which Hasina will blame on the opposition.” More worryingly, they say, a lack of government deficit and debt reduction, and the deteriorating international perception of Bangladesh because of extremist attacks will limit investment; preventing Dhaka from reaching its target of 7.3 percent economic growth.
Trends and underlying tactics
They conclude that two trends will shape the future of Bangladesh, the world’s eighth-most populous nation. “The first is its descent toward single-party authoritarianism. The second is increasing insecurity brought about by extremist attacks.”
The report corroborated its findings and the conclusion by saying:
“When it comes to authoritarianism, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, leader of the center-left Awami League party, has employed four tactics to marginalize rival politician Begum Khaleda Zia, chairwoman of the center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
First: “In 2013, the Supreme Court under Hasina’s administration banned Jamaat-e-Islami — the country’s largest religious party and an ally of the BNP — from participating in elections on the grounds that the party’s charter is illegal.”
Secondly:“Hasina fulfilled a campaign pledge and instituted the International War Crimes tribunal, a court charged with prosecuting crimes committed during the 1971 Bangladesh war for independence. In creating the tribunal, Hasina weakened Jamaat-e-Islami by exploiting an issue that still resonates in the Bangladeshi national consciousness and solidified her party’s stance as the sole torchbearer of the 1971 independence movement. Even so, though there is support for addressing war crimes, the trials have been criticized for being unfair. For instance, the defense is allowed to present only four witnesses while the government can present an unlimited number.”
Third:“Hasina took advantage of the BNP’s boycott of the January 2014 elections, ensuring an Awami League victory, even though the election had the lowest voter turnout in the country’s history. Hasina’s Grand Alliance coalition currently holds 280 of the 300 seats in parliament, granting her a monopoly on legislation.”
And fourth:“Hasina’s government is pressing charges against various high-ranking BNP members, as well as influential members of the media. In January, Zia, the BNP’s chairwoman, was charged with sedition because she questioned the death toll figures from the 1971 independence war. Then on May 11, Zia and 27 BNP members were charged with arson for their alleged role in the firebombing of two buses in Dhaka in 2015. Other influential figures are also facing trial. Mahfuz Anam, editor of the Daily Star, the country’s largest English language daily, is being tried on 79 separate charges (including 17 acts of sedition and 69 acts of defamation) for publishing corruption allegations against the military. Matiur Rahman, the editor of Prothom Alo, was charged with sedition in February for “hurting religious sentiments.”
The report claims: “Hasina has made the political calculation that if she can sustain the country’s 6 percent rate of growth while creating jobs, reducing poverty, and increasing health care access, then the electorate will overlook single-party rule and reward the Awami League during the 2018 elections.”
Fact is: another election without BNP’s participation, the second in a row, will descend the nation into total autocracy and open floodgates of prospects for a variety of extra-constitutional interventions. That is what is the lesson of history, which the ruling AL had excruciatingly learnt in 1975 following 4 years of autocratic rule.
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